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07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Argentina lifts the World Cup four years from now in Brazil, Oscar Ruggeri will be able to take some of the credit.
No, Ruggeri is not a fleet-footed winger capable of scoring bags of goals, or even a stalwart defender who will help to shore up a leaky defense.
Ruggeri was a coach on manager Diego Maradona's staff during the 2010 World Cup for Argentina, and he is partly to blame (or praise) for Maradona not being retained.
All indications over the past few weeks pointed to a four-year extension for the legendary Maradona, which would run through the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Argentinean Football Association president Julio Grondona was firmly in Maradona's corner, but he wasn't as pleased with some of Maradona's coaching staff.
Ruggeri in particular came under scrutiny since he was the defensive coach who watched his side concede four goals in a quarterfinal loss to Germany earlier this month.
However, Maradona was adamant that he would need to be able to retain all of his staff if he were to continue, telling El Show del Futbol with typical boldness:
"If they touch a hair of one of my guys, even if the masseur or the kitman, I'm going. "I want to continue the adventure but not with (just) anyone. I chose these people. I want to continue working with them."
The problem is that some of the other board members did not agree that Maradona's staff warranted another chance, and he was instead let go in order to make way for a new coach.
"I would be a hypocrite if I didn't admit there was a general disliking of several aspects of the cycle that ended with the World Cup," general secretary Jose Luis Meiszner told cable channel C5N. "We did not see any intention to show humility, to say things should have been done better. There was no evaluation, no review, no conclusions. These are the things you have to think about in order to think about the future."
Humility has never been one of Maradona's greatest attributes, and if he had been retained as manager for another four years, Argentina would have many entertaining press conferences to look forward to, but no real chance at winning its third World Cup.
Maradona's appointment as manager in October 2008 was met with plenty of skepticism. After all, here was a man whose coaching resume consisted of a pair of one-year stints as a coach with smaller clubs in Argentina, making him grossly underqualified to take on such a big task.
Essentially, Maradona was a teenager with a learner's permit who was given the keys to a race car and asked to compete in the Daytona 500.
He got off to rocky start in qualification with an embarrassing 6-1 defeat at the hands of Bolivia, while also losing matches against Brazil, Ecuador and Paraguay.
In fact, qualification for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa was not secured until the final two games, as Argentina needed late goals to beat both Peru and Uruguay.
Maradona and his team were heavily criticized for such a poor showing, but they still had enough talent to be a factor in South Africa.
The one thing they were missing was an experienced coach on the bench, and that fact became horribly apparent in their quarterfinal thrashing against Germany.
After winning four successive games to start the competition based on having superior talent alone, Argentina came up against an equally talented German side, but Maradona was in no position to match wits with his German counterpart, Joachim Loew.
Germany was able to score an early goal, and from there, Loew had his team sit back and soak up the pressure from Argentina before finding openings on the counter attack.
It was a plan that worked to perfection, as Argentina time and again tried to break down a well-organized German defense, only to be turned away and punished on the break.
It was a bit like watching someone run headfirst into a brick wall over and over again, and hoping that the outcome will be different the next time they try.
In a situation like this, Maradona the player would simply drop into midfield, collect a pass and dribble through six defenders before scoring a wonderful goal.
However, Maradona the manager was only able to stand on the sidelines and clap his hands while shouting encouragement to his befuddled players, looking as confused and lost as they did.
Instead of making a tactical adjustment Maradona watched as Argentina continued to hit its head against the wall by attacking in the same manner over and over again.
The end result was not pretty; a 4-0 defeat and a plane ticket back to Buenos Aires.
The one area in which Maradona did excel was taking the focus off of his players and soaking it up himself.
Prior to the Germany match he engaged in a war of words with some of the German players, and while the ability to deal with pressure is a good quality for a coach, it is just a small part of the job.
Maradona clearly was in over his head tactically, and with such a gifted side at his disposal, it was a shame that they lacked any real direction.
You would have thought that the result against Germany would have been enough to convince Argentina's board that Maradona needed to be replaced, yet still they were ready to offer him four more years.
However, the poor performances of coaches like Ruggeri have now saved Argentina from making a terrible mistake and have given the board a chance to redeem itself by finding a qualified coach capable of taking the reigns.
Maradona's playing career is no less brilliant despite his failings as a coach, and his loyalty to his staff is admirable. However, he is clearly not the right man for the job, and thanks to Ruggeri, Argentina can now search for the man who is.
<< Devils avoid arbitration with Fraser
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils have avoided arbitration
with defenseman Mark Fraser and signed him to a one-year contract.
Financial terms were not disclosed.
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Golden Tate have agreed to terms on a contract.
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<< Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field
problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell
Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character.
It's natural to laugh at an
<< Dolphins extend K Carpenter
West Palm Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins reportedly handed
kicker Dan Carpenter a three-year contract extension Wednesday.
The Palm Beach Post reports the pact runs through the 2013 season and is worth
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McGowan joins St Mirren on loan >>
Paisley, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St Mirren have signed striker Paul
McGowan on a season-long loan deal from SPL side Celtic.
The 22-year-old has made just a handful of starts for the Bhoys to date and
has previously been loaned
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Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid legend Raul has
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Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals optioned reliever
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Talbot adds heat to Winter Classic >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thank goodness the NHL still has a few
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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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