James signing with Miami deflates MSG stock

Basketball Betting Lines

07/09/2010 -

NEW YORK (AP) - Now that LeBron James has decided to play basketball in Miami, shares of Madison Square Garden Inc., owner of the New York Knicks, have gone south as well.

Madison Square Garden shares had risen as much as 11 percent this month as a nationwide fervor mounted over what team the superstar free agent would pick.

The two-time league MVP's announcement Thursday in an hourlong ESPN special that he'd leave Cleveland to play in Miami instead of New York, Chicago, New Jersey or any other bidding team's cities sent the company's stock down 94 cents, or 4.6 percent, to close Friday at $19.44.

That was below the low reached two trading days before the start of the free agency shopping spree began on July 1. The shares had hit a two-week high on Wednesday of $21.91.

But all hope is not lost for the Knicks or its owner, says Gabelli & Co. analyst Christopher Marangi.

Right after James' announcement, the once-hopeful Knicks made some last-minute swaps that should still improve the team and its owner's financial prospects, he said.

The Knicks traded productive center David Lee to the Golden State Warriors for forwards Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf. The move means the team won't have to pay Lee a big salary, giving it salary cap room to make additional moves this season.

Also, the team will save millions of dollars on a luxury tax that would have been imposed had it signed James and boosted its payroll higher, he said.

``While the Knicks won't get instantly better, the Knicks without LeBron James should improve,'' Marangi said.

He noted that the Knicks finally loosened the purse strings by acquiring Amare Stoudemire from Phoenix and have the financial wherewithal to make other moves this season that could improve its performance on the court.

``Earnings should go up as a result,'' he said.

The Knicks have posted nine straight losing seasons, a franchise record, in part because they gutted their roster to free up money for a player like James.

The Knicks entered the free agency shopping spree with the most salary cap room in the league with $34.1 million - enough for two players earning the maximum salary, with about half for each. After picking up Stoudemire, it still had $17 million to spend on James. That money can now be used elsewhere.

``We are disappointed that LeBron James did not pick the New York Knicks, but we respect his decision,'' Knicks president Donnie Walsh said late Thursday.

The bitterly disappointed owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert ripped James in an open letter on the team's website.

``The self-declared former 'King' will be taking the 'curse' with him down south,'' he wrote.

Marangi had estimated signing James could have boosted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by $30 million to $50 million per year. The company would have benefited from increases in the MSG television network's advertising revenue, attendance at games, and concession and merchandise sales.

Now James takes some of that financial heat down to Miami and team owner billionaire Micky Arison, the CEO of cruise company Carnival Corp., which operates its namesake, Holland America, Princess and other cruise lines.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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