Extra Point - First Round: Underdogs get their chance

Football Betting Lines

11/22/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Early in the season, the elite teams that would eventually make a run for the Division I Football Championship in November and December became clear.

Defending national champion Appalachian State stayed in the top two all season. Montana, Massachusetts and Youngstown State, the other three seeds in this years tourney, never fell out of the top 10 of The Sportsbook Betting Lines top 25. James Madison, New Hampshire and Illinois State slipped out of the top 10 at times, but they all earned praise as teams that could still be playing in mid- December.

The consistency of the top teams in the country had I-AA/FCS fans looking forward to December 2, when most of those squads would finally get to settle things on the field in the quarterfinals. Most of the first-round matchups keep that possibility alive, but a less-heralded group of underdogs from some of the perceived weaker conferences could shake things up by playing the role of David and slaying a giant.

There is probably no bigger underdog on paper than Coastal Carolina. The Chants have won eight games in a row and increasingly earned more and more respect every season in their fourth year as a program. That hot string and a few key wins gave the Chants their first-ever playoff berth this season, and the first playoff berth from a Big South Conference that had been better known as the place for Atlantic 10 and Southern Conference teams to grab victories. For their efforts, the Chants were rewarded with a trip to the No. 1 team in the field. Appalachian State won the 2005 national championship and has won 18 games in a row against I-AA/FCS opponents. The Mountaineers beat the Chants, 30-3, last season, and are expected to put up a similar effort to start the playoffs this year.

Lafayettes playoff history is a little longer, but the Leopards might be the least-accomplished team in this years postseason. They won the Patriot League, which was in a down year overall, by winning in their last four contests to finish with a 6-5 overall record after a 2-5 start. The Leopards managed a 1-4 record with the lone win over Sacred Heart in non-conference play, and they havent sniffed the top 25 since Sept. 11. Now, a team that turned things around to sneak in the postseason gets a trip to a Massachusetts team that seems to do everything well and just became the first team to sweep through the Atlantic 10 since 1997. The Leopards played well in their last two postseason appearances, but they get a very tough assignment here.

The Southland Conference is usually not placed into the category of underdog. It is the only league to place a team in the last two semifinals, and had multiple selections to the postseason in eight of the last 10 campaigns before this year. But early struggles in non-conference play, largely against I-A opponents, left the league as a certain one-bid conference and seemed to indicate a future flight plan to Missoula, Montana. Thats exactly what happened, as a 7-4 McNeese State team that won six of its final seven games with a new head coach got hot to win the league and earn a trip to Montana. The Cowboys dont usually play the role of the little guy in the playoffs, and they have knocked off the Grizzlies two out of three times in postseason encounters. But this year they will be a decided underdog against a Montana team that has won 10 games in a row, swept the Big Sky schedule and is playing defense as well as anybody else in the country. Oh, and the Cowboys have to win at Washington-Grizzly Stadium, where opponents usually die in the playoffs.

Three other games wouldnt be upsets according to the final top 25 rankings. No. 9 New Hampshire is at No. 8 Hampton, No. 11 Illinois State visits No. 14 Eastern Illinois and No. 12 UT-Martin is at No. 10 Southern Illinois. But while the pollsters rate the teams comparably, the history books sure dont indicate success for the Pirates, Panthers or Skyhawks. Hampton is in the playoffs for the third year in a row, but lost to Atlantic 10 teams William & Mary and Richmond in the last two years. The Pirates won the MEAC once again, though many observers wonder the significance of winning a league that has not won a playoff game since Florida A & M advanced to the semifinals in 1999. That constitutes an eight-game overall playoff losing streak, with five losses of 20 points or more in that stretch. Hampton has one of those ugly defeats with a 38-10 loss at home to Richmond last year, and now has to try to break the futility against a New Hampshire team that was ranked No. 1 for the first half of the season and is still considered a playoff sleeper despite slipping at the end. The Pirates are at home, but they have to show that they can win in a big spot against a team from the Atlantic 10.

While Hampton can end the MEACs playoff drought, the Ohio Valley Conference has an even greater opportunity to end its recent postseason struggles. The league has only posted one playoff victory in the last nine postseason campaigns, and that was a first-round win in 2000 by a Western Kentucky team that has since moved on to the Gateway. During the current seven-game playoff losing streak, OVC teams have lost four games by 30 points or more, all from 2002-04. The last time two OVC teams were selected to the field, in 2002, Eastern Illinois lost to Western Illinois, 48-9, and Murray State fell to Western Kentucky by an equal margin of 59-20. The Panthers had a chance to breakthrough at home after sweeping through the Ohio Valley last year, but fell to Southern Illinois, 21-6.

Now the conference has two more shots to get on the board, and both offer realistic chances against unseeded teams from the Gateway. First-year playoff participant UT-Martin would have to be considered the bigger underdog against a hot Southern Illinois team that is playing at home and making its fourth consecutive playoff berth. The Skyhawks can stay in it with a strong running game and defense, but they have to overcome a Southern Illinois team that can score in bunches.

Then theres Eastern Illinois, who has the biggest shot at earning the win for one of the unheralded teams or conferences. The Panthers snuck in the playoffs as an at-large team with an 8-4 overall record, but they were presented with a favorable matchup at home against an Illinois State team that they have already faced on the road this season. The Redbirds won the first meeting, 44-30, but the Panthers do feature a different quarterback and play a team they know well from matchups nearly every season. Illinois State has to go on the road and beat a team for the second time this season, which is never an easy task. The Panthers are still fighting uphill against a team that was in the top 10 until the final week of the season, but they have the most realistic shot to break through and get a win for the underdogs.

The other two matchups could go either way, and there isnt a real underdog or upset possibility in games between teams from this years "power" conferences. Furman and Montana State play in a matchup of two teams that could have drawn a much more difficult first round fate, while James Madison and Youngstown State face off in the annual contest that makes followers yearn for 16, or at the least eight, seeds to make the bracket more fair and give more credit to regular season success.

No results would produce a surprise from those two games, but the winners will have to wait and see if they have an underdog or two with them in the quarterfinal bracket after the smoke clears from the David vs. Goliath games on Saturday.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

This week on CSN Waves, I was put on the spot for playoff selections right after the brackets were announced. I wasnt quite ready to dissect the whole bracket at that point, but after a few days of contemplation my initial selections have not changed. Read on to this weeks predictions for my thoughts on who makes it to the quarterfinals, but Ill go with Appalachian State, James Madison, Massachusetts and Montana to make it through to the semifinals. In a rematch of a regular season game played in Boone, the result will stay the same as the Mountaineers get past James Madison. Massachusetts goes where opponents dont often leave with victories, but the balance on offense and strong defense for the Minutemen will carry them to an upset in Missoula. With a national championship matchup between the Mountaineers and Minutemen, Ill stick with the preseason pick and best team Ive seen this year and say Appalachian State captures its second title and becomes the first team to go back-to-back since Georgia Southern in 1999-00. Remember, I hit on last years pre-playoff pick of the Mountaineers, too.

NEWS & NOTES

SIGNED, SEALED, AND DELIVERED

Ballots for the Walter Payton, Buck Buchanan, and Eddie Robinson Awards were distributed electronically on Monday to each I-AA/FCS sports information director and media member selected for the voting process. Ballots were due back by midnight on Wednesday, November 22nd, and an announcement will be made revealing the three top finalists (in terms of votes received) for the Payton on Monday, November 27. All three awards will be presented on December 14th, 2006, in Chattanooga, TN, on the eve of the Division I Football Championship title game. The Sportsbook Betting Lines Cup, which will be presented to the team that holds the No. 1 ranking in the final Mid-Major poll on Dec. 4, will also be bestowed on Dec. 15th.

COACHING CAROUSEL

For 16 teams, the season goes on with a postseason appearance. For all the others, the offseason begins and, as usual, a few programs have already decided to take a different direction with their head football coach. The most recent casualty is Idaho States Larry Lewis, who was let go along with all of his assistants after the Bengals completed a 2-9 season that equaled their worst mark since a winless 1988 season. Lewis compiled a 40-49 record with three winning marks in his eight seasons at the helm, but never took the Bengals to the postseason and led the team to a 10-23 record in the past three years. His 40 wins are third-most for a Bengal head coach and he ranks 18th in all-time victories among Big Sky coaches. Last week, two head coaches got their walking papers. Samford fired Bill Gray after six years at the helm. The Bulldogs were just 3-8 with a 1-7 record in the Ohio Valley Conference in 2006, and Gray put up a 27-33 record in his six seasons. After a 4-1 mark as an interim coach in 2001, he posted just one overall winning season during his tenure. Jacksonville head coach Steve Gilbert, the first head coach in the history of the program, was let go after nine seasons. Gilbert finished with a 36-54 overall record and only two non-losing seasons, though the Dolphins did have a 4-3 record in the Pioneer Football League and an overall 4-6 mark this season. Tennessee Techs Mike Hennigan resigned his post. Hennigan had been on medical leave from the position since July. On the good side for I-AA/FCS head coaches, McNeese States Matt Viator had the interim tag removed from his position. Viator took over when Tommy Tate resigned when the Cowboys were 1-3, and led the team to a 6-1 record and outright Southland Conference title. THE GAMES FIRST ROUND

TOP BRACKET

No. 13 Coastal Carolina (9-2) at No. 1 Appalachian State (10-1), 3:30

Two programs that are polar opposites as far as postseason play goes meet in the first round at Boone. Coastal Carolina, in just its fourth year for the football program, makes the postseason for the first time after finishing 9-2 and sweeping the Big South schedule. The Chants won their final eight games after a 1-2 start, and recorded key victories over Furman and Wofford to earn the berth. Coastal Carolina had a 2-2 record against Southern Conference teams, with losses to Elon and Georgia Southern. For their efforts, the Chants were rewarded with a trip to an Appalachian State team that has a 24-game winning streak at home and 18-game overall win streak against I-AA/FCS teams. The defending champion Mountaineers won their final 10 games of the season after losing the opener at North Carolina State, and posted victories against James Madison and Furman. Appalachian State earned the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Division I Football Championship after also going 7-0 in Southern Conference play, and is in the postseason for the 14th time overall and seventh time in the last nine years. The teams will meet for the second time, and Coastal Carolina has to hope this matchup goes better than its 2005 trip to Boone. Appalachian State opened up a 30-0 halftime lead and held a 582-225 advantage in total offense in a 30-3 blowout of the Chants on Sept. 17, 2005.

When Coastal Carolina Has the Ball: When the teams met in Boone last year, Coastal Carolina quarterback Tyler Thigpen had a tough day with 10-of-22 passing for 87 yards and one touchdown. If he puts up that type of performance again, this game will be over in a hurry. Appalachian States defense is just as capable of stopping the pass as it was last year. The Mountaineers have 11 interceptions with only nine touchdowns allowed and limited opponents to just 50 percent of passes completed and 146.1 yards per game. But Coastal Carolina brings a much more explosive and wide-open attack this year, and Thigpen (2945 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT) was spectacular all season. He comes in off of 300-yard efforts against Gardner-Webb and Charleston Southern, and can keep the Mountaineers honest by making plays with his feet after notching 633 yards and four scores on the ground this year. Thigpen can usually count on huge performances from wide receiver Jerome Simpson (945 yards, 14 TD), who also looks to atone for a tough game in Boone last year. The Chants have run the ball for 190.4 yards per game and 5.11 yards per carry as well, but they dont have an explosive feature back and face a defense that is sixth nationally with 2.8 yards per carry allowed and surrenders just 104 rushing yards per game. The Mountaineers give up 12.5 ppg and rank eighth nationally in total defense, so an explosive Chants offense that totals 34.8 ppg and 470.2 yards per game gets a tough matchup. Running the ball figures to be very difficult, so the Chants will need a huge day from Thigpen, Simpson and the passing game to move on the Mountaineers.

When Appalachian State Has the Ball: An offense that loves to spread the field and run the ball gets a great matchup here. Appalachian State ran for 214.9 yards per game and averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and has posted at least 199 yards on the ground in the last eight contests. Most of the production comes from running back Kevin Richardson (1065 yards, 19 TD), who finished strong with 173 yards and four touchdowns against Furman and 148 yards and three scores against The Citadel. Richardson averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and will be looking to duplicate his breakout 178-yard, three-touchdown day against the Chants last time around. He carried just 18 times for 9.9 yards per carry in that meeting, and the Chants need to find a way to stop Richardson and quarterback Armanti Edwards (685 rushing yards, 9 TD) to have any chance to slow the Mountaineer offense. Thats asking a lot, since Coastal Carolina gave up 183.6 yards per game on the ground and offered very poor defensive efforts against Wofford and Georgia Southern. They are better late in the season, but have not faced a team with Appalachian States running ability since beating Furman on Oct. 7. The Chants have 16 interceptions and only eight touchdowns allowed through the air, and can force Edwards (1636 yards, 11 TD/8 INT), a freshman, into a few mistakes in his first playoff game. But Coastal Carolina has to stop the run first, and that could prove difficult.

Intangibles: If their apparent edge on the field wasnt enough, the Mountaineers also have the advantage in external factors. The game is at Kidd Brewer Stadium, where Appalachian State has not lost since the 2002 postseason. The Mountaineers also have a team that is chock-full of playoff experience from last years run, and their goal of winning a second consecutive national title is well within reach. Coastal Carolina is in its first playoff experience, so the Chants have to guard against just being happy to be here and not get overwhelmed. They had to win eight consecutive games to get here as well, so it will be interesting to see how much Coastal Carolina has left in the tank. If the Chants have any advantage, they can go all-out in the playbook and play with nothing to lose in a game where they are a decided underdog.

The Verdict: Maybe Thigpen comes through with a huge game and makes it a shootout. Maybe Coastal Carolinas improvement against the run down the stretch was not just due to a weaker schedule and indicates a team that is making progress. If not, this looks like the biggest mismatch in the first round. Appalachian State has the ability to run all over a team that is not as talented up front or as fast, and a Mountaineer defense that gave up 13 points or less seven times and never allowed more than 23 points is not likely to let the Coastal Carolina offense have a huge day. The Mountaineers have been on a mission for a repeat all season, and they should come out ready to start that quest with a big win at home. Prediction: Appalachian State 38, Coastal Carolina 14

No. 7 Furman (8-3) at No. 18 Montana State (7-4), 1:35

Furman has to be wondering what happened to the geographical nature of the NCAA Division I Football Championship. While most matchups were set up with the region in mind, the Paladins will make the 2,120-mile journey to Bozeman, Montana to play the Bobcats. The Paladins had to hope for a better fate after going 8-3 overall and 6-1 in the Southern Conference, though they are probably happy just to be in the playoffs after needing four wins by six points or less to get to the necessary seven Division I wins. In their third consecutive playoff berth, the Paladins will try to take the next step after making the quarterfinals in 2004 and the semis in 2005. Furman qualifies for its 15th postseason overall and seventh in the last eight years. While the Paladins can complain about their long trip, nobody in the field is more pleased with its position than Montana State. The Bobcats earned one of the last two at-large spots in the field with a 7-4 record and 6-2 mark that included a few bad losses but also victories over Colorado and Portland State and wins in six of the past seven contests. They won five of those six games by seven points or less, and also offered a solid performance in a 13-7 loss at Montana to end the season. But what the Bobcats can really be happy about is hosting a first-round game, which marks the first time they have hosted a playoff game since the national championship season of 1984. The Bobcats, who make their fourth postseason appearance, will also search for their first playoff victory since that year after losing in the first round in 2002 and 2003. The schools have never met on the gridiron, and the Bobcats will face a Southern Conference opponent for the first time. Furmans 3-2 record against the Big Sky has all come in playoff contests, with the last coming in a 13-6 loss to Montana in the 2001 national championship game.

When Furman Has the Ball: The battle between a powerful running game and a strong run defense will very likely decide the outcome of this game. Furman has racked up a healthy 174.1 rushing yards per game behind an effort that is often led by the two-headed monster of fullback Jerome Felton and Cedrick Gipson. Felton (670 yards, 22 TD) got off to a great start to the season but slowed with nagging injuries in the second half of the year, while Gipson (843 yards, 5 TD) was consistent all year. The offense also has more ability to run the ball when Renaldo Gray (1045 pass yards, 3 TD/2 INT/90 rush yards), is under center, though he has had trouble staying on the field all season as well. Felton and Gray did both get a week to heal up coming into this game, so they could come in healthier than at most points this season. The running group will all need to be at their best against a Bobcat defense that ranks 14th nationally with 106.5 rushing yards allowed per game and is in the top 10 with 2.98 yards per carry surrendered. The Bobcats have a few injury issues of their own after last weeks physical game at Montana, but are healthier on defense than offense. Montana State has allowed 14 touchdowns and 198.3 yards per game through the air, but Gray only has one outing with more than 200 passing yards this year. Freshman Jordan Sorrells did lead the passing game to good days against The Citadel and Chattanooga, but Gray gives the offense more balance with his ability to run the ball.

When Montana State Has the Ball: As Michael Jefferson goes, so goes the Bobcat offense. Jefferson (842 yards, 8 TD) notched 12 receptions for 239 yards in a 39-32 victory over Northern Arizona, and totaled 274 all-purpose yards and five total touchdowns in a 42-35 win over Idaho State. He also came through with quality efforts against Colorado and Sacramento State. However, Jefferson has only eight catches over the last three games and the Bobcats have averaged less than 15 ppg over that span. Furmans pass defense has solid numbers with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, but opponents do complete nearly 58 percent of passes against them and Coastal Carolinas Jerome Simpson had a huge day earlier in the season. Jeffersons play will be especially important this week, because the Bobcats have injury concerns at other key positions. Quarterback Jack Rolovich (1212 yards, 8 TD/9 INT) is expected to start after suffering an upper torso injury against Montana, but the Bobcats will be without running back Evin Groves and wide receiver Deon Toliver. Aaron Mason (573 yards, 7 TD) did get most of the work at running back this year anyway, but a Bobcat running game that ranked 101st nationally with 98.5 yards per game gets a very difficult matchup against a tough Furman run defense. That will make the play of Rolovich and Jefferson even more important, especially since a low-scoring game could be in the works.

Intangibles: The most obvious factor in this game is the injuries on both sides. How will Furmans offensive stars come out after a week off, and how will the Bobcats recover from a very tough game against Montana? Furman has to add a long, cross-country flight into its itinerary, and a Paladin team that plays in the comforts of South Carolina will have an adjustment to late November in Bozeman, Montana. The Paladins do have the advantage of having last week off, especially since the Bobcats were playing such a tough and emotional game at the time. Montana State might have something to prove as the last team in with an unlikely home game. If its close, both teams have a good track record to draw on. Furman is 4-1 against I-AA/FCS opponents in games decided by seven points or less, while Montana State posts a 5-1 mark in those contests.

The Verdict: Considering that the Paladins and Bobcats had to survive for a lot of close victories and were probably two of the last at-large selections, facing a very beatable opponent that is in the same boat can encourage them both. Furmans cross-country trip cant be helpful, since Southern teams dont have a great history when they travel North in the playoffs. The matchups on both sides seem to favor the defense, which should make for a close, low- scoring game. Both teams could struggle to have a big day on the ground, which will give Montana State an edge if Jefferson can make plays. He could be ready to breakout after a few slow weeks, so look for a significant play or two to lift the Bobcats to a win in the fourth quarter. Prediction: Montana State 17, Furman 13

No. 11 Illinois State (8-3) at No. 14 Eastern Illinois (8-4), 2:05

Playoff rematches are a rarity, but these Illinois schools separated by a short two-hour drive will meet for the second time this season. Illinois State hosted the first meeting, and the Redbirds emerged with a 44-30 win in a back-and- forth shootout. Eastern Illinois tied the game at 23 early in the third quarter, but the Redbirds scored the next two touchdowns to take a 37-23 lead in the fourth quarter, and then responded to a Panther touchdown with a score in the final minute to ice the game. The Redbirds are making their first playoff appearance since 1999 and only third overall, but they were considered a postseason lock most of the season. They jumped out to a 6-1 record before going 2-2 in the final four games, including a loss at Northern Iowa in the season finale. Eastern Illinois spot in this years field was not as certain, as the Panthers garnered one of the final at-large spots after finishing 8-4 overall but 8-2 against I-AA/FCS teams with losses to Illinois State and fellow OVC playoff participant UT-Martin. The Panthers finished 7-1 in the OVC and won a share of the conference crown, and posted victories in their final three games and six of the last seven. While the Panthers were not a guaranteed playoff team for much of the year, they do have a long playoff history with their 11th appearance overall and second in a row. However, they lost a home game to Southern Illinois last season and own a 3-10 playoff record. Illinois State has defeated the Panthers in each of the last four seasons, and the Redbirds hold a 48-37-9 edge in the all-time series.

When Illinois State Has the Ball: If Illinois State can play as well as it did in the first meeting, the offense can have a big day. Luke Drone (2595 yards, 19 TD/5 INT) completed 17-of-26 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns, while Pierre Rembert (1507 yards, 5 TD) carried 24 times for 105 yards and two scores. Pierre Jackson had six receptions for 132 yards and two scores, and the Redbirds put up 432 yards of total offense without the services of wide receiver Laurent Robinson. With Robinson back in the lineup, another big day is possible against an Eastern Illinois team that gave up 20.9 ppg and 333.3 yards per contest. The Panthers did play better recently, and only allow 120 yards per game on the ground. They need to show that the strong performances were a sign of improvement and not a factor of playing against teams that dont have the firepower that Illinois State possesses. The Redbirds average 30.2 ppg and rank sixth nationally with 404.8 yards per game from a balanced offense. The Panthers might not be capable of shutting that attack down, but they can force turnovers. Eastern Illinois leads the nation with 32 turnovers forced, including a I-AA/FCS best 19 fumbles gained. They only forced one turnover in the first meeting, and face an Illinois State team that only turned it over 10 times this season. Four of those miscues did come in a loss at Northern Iowa last week, so the Panthers need to make that a trend and force a few turnovers to slow the Redbirds.

When Eastern Illinois Has the Ball: The Panthers can run the ball, and Illinois State has had trouble stopping the run. Not only can Eastern Illinois move the ball on the Redbird defense on the ground, but they can also keep the explosive Illinois State offense off the field and control the clock. Vincent Webb (1351 yards, 7 TD) averages 5.4 yards per carry and is the go-to guy for an offense that totals 198.2 yards per game on the ground. Webb had 107 yards and a touchdown to lead a 185-yard effort by the Panthers in the first meeting, and Illinois State has really struggled recently. The Redbirds have allowed 150.3 rushing yards per game for the season, but gave up 258 in last weeks loss at Northern Iowa and at least 130 yards in the last four contests. The Redbirds helped overcome the Panthers in the first meeting with three interceptions of Mike Donato, but theyll face a different quarterback this time. Cole Stinson (1270 yards, 12 TD/8 INT) has held the starting role over the last half of the season, and has thrown for at least 220 yards in each of the last three contests. The Panthers also have Micah Rucker (966 yards, 13 TD) and Ryan Voss to make plays at wide receiver, and should offer a more balanced offense than the Redbirds saw earlier in the year. Illinois State has 14 interceptions this season, but also allows more than 200 yards through the air per game. If they dont create turnovers, the game could turn into a shootout.

Intangibles: Teams that face each other in the postseason usually dont know each other that well, but these two regional, in-state foes should be plenty familiar at this point. They play on pretty much a yearly basis, with the Redbirds claiming the past four meetings. There is a saying that its hard to beat a team twice in one season, but Illinois State has to maintain a recent history of dominance to win this game. Making adjustments from the first meeting, especially on defense, will be key for both teams. Facing Stinson instead of Donato makes this a little bit different for the Redbirds. Eastern Illinois gained some postseason experience last year, while Illinois State is in the field for the first time since 1999.

The Verdict: Expect another shootout between the Redbirds and Panthers. Illinois State can move the ball on the ground and through the air, and has the ability to score on just about any defense. Eastern Illinois will need to force turnovers to stop them, but thats tough against a balanced offense that usually takes care of the ball. The Panthers should have a good day on the ground as well, which will make this game come down to the fourth quarter. If its time to make a play, Ill take the experience and ability of players like Drone, Rembert and Robinson to come through down the stretch and lift Illinois State into the quarterfinals. Prediction: Illinois State 34, Eastern Illinois 31

No. 6 James Madison (9-2) at No. 5 Youngstown State (9-2), 7:30

The loyal supporters in Harrisonburg, Virginia and Youngstown, Ohio cant be very happy with this matchup. My email box has been flooded with complaints from James Madison fans this week, and for good reason. James Madison went on the road and won at New Hampshire and Towson, and never had its playoff status in doubt with a 9-2 overall record that included a 7-1 mark in the Atlantic 10. The Dukes lost to Villanova two weeks ago, but won eight of the final nine games overall after losing at Appalachian State and finished just outside of a top four seed. For that effort, the Dukes have to make the longest possible "regional" trip and face the No. 4 seeded Penguins in this years rendition of a seemingly annual first-round matchup of legitimate national title contenders. Youngstown State faithful are just as upset with this tough first-round game and the selection committee in general after getting snubbed for a spot in 2005. The Penguins are very familiar with the postseason with four national championships and a 23-6 record in its previous 10 appearances, but they are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2000. They did it by emerging as the top team in a very strong Gateway Conference with a 9-2 overall record and 6-1 mark, and outright championship, in the league. The Penguins are also 8-1 against I-AA/FCS teams, and have won seven of the last eight games overall. They own victories over Illinois State and Southern Illinois, and also beat solid Maine and UC Davis teams. The programs are meeting for the fourth time, as Youngstown State won two of three contests from 1990-92.

When James Madison Has the Ball: The Dukes can throw it with Justin Rascati (1900 yards, 19 TD/6 INT), but they would love to pound away all day on the ground. James Madison runs for 215.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry, and can come in waves with Eugene Holloman (995 yards, 8 TD) averaging 5.8 yards per carry and leading a deep backfield that can feature three or four players. The Dukes have six efforts of 200 yards or more, and notched 244 yards and two scores in a 38-3 win at Towson on Saturday. Rascati can also chip in with 425 rushing yards and three scores this season. They will mostly try to grind it out against a Penguin defense that gives up 4.27 yards per carry and 144.5 rushing yards per game, though those numbers were posted in the running- oriented Gateway Conference. The unit was better against the run down the stretch with the exception of a huge day by Arkee Whitlock, so they might be able to keep the Dukes from going too wild. The Dukes have lost both games where Rascati has thrown more than 25 times, but he is very capable of making big plays in the passing game. Rascati completes 67 percent of his passes, and has eight touchdown strikes without an interception in the past three weeks. The Penguins have allowed 12 touchdown passes and 197.3 yards per game against the pass, so Rascati could look to hit a big play, possibly to L.C. Baker (590 yards, 8 TD). The Dukes only lost nine turnovers all season, but the Penguins forced 21 miscues and certainly have the ability to notch a key play or two.

When Youngstown State Has the Ball: There isnt much doubt about who the Penguins are going to, but how will the Dukes fare against Marcus Mason (1496 yards, 19 TD) and the very tough Penguin offensive line. Youngstown State averages 5.6 yards per carry and 240. 6 yards per game on the ground, and the ground game has done even better than that lately. The Penguins ran for 282 yards in the season finale against Western Kentucky, 296 against Southern Illinois and 345 against Illinois State in the last three weeks. Mason has notched at least 172 yards and two touchdowns in each of his last five starts, while backup Monquantae Gibson showed how strong the overall running game is with 236 yards and two touchdowns in Masons absence at Western Kentucky. James Madison will present an imposing challenge, since the Dukes rank fourth nationally in rushing defense with 84 yards allowed per game and place third with 2.39 yards per carry allowed. Part of that total is due to leading the nation with 48 sacks, but the Dukes are obviously very tough on the run as well. However, Appalachian State did have 161 rushing yards against the defense, and a Youngstown State team that is dominating on the ground isnt going to just be shut down. The Penguins probably wont put up the numbers they posted earlier in the month, either, so they will need something from quarterback Tom Zetts (1476 yards, 10 TD/10 INT) and the passing game. The Dukes are capable of getting after any quarterback, but did have 65 percent of passes completed against them. The Penguins want to win on the ground, but theyll need Zetts to make at least a few key plays to keep the James Madison defense honest.

Intangibles: Neither team was thrilled with facing another legitimate national championship contender and top five team in the first round, so it will be interesting to see if both teams can put the bad selection Sunday news behind them by game time. The other advantages are a little more clear, as the Penguins have the edge of playing at home in front of a big crowd in their first playoff game since 2000, while the Dukes have playoff experience with a lot of players that won the 2004 national championship, including Rascati at quarterback. James Madison won three road games that year, so the environment should not phase them. Both teams probably have a chip on their shoulder because of perceived slights from the committee in the past couple of seasons.

The Verdict: Im really not even ready to pick this type of game. This is the type of matchup that comes in the quarterfinals or even beyond between two teams that have been in the top 10 throughout the second half of the season. The winner of this game will likely be in the semifinals. The Dukes ability to limit Mason and the Penguin running game will be an obvious key, because they cant get pressure and make plays if the Penguins are running up and down the field. But expect James Madison to at least keep Mason from posting another 170+ yard day, which will force a close game to come down to which quarterback can make more plays. Ill go with the experienced and proven Rascati in that scenario, and a Dukes team that has shown it can win on the road in the playoffs to come out with a strong performance and get the win by a field goal. Prediction: James Madison 27, Youngstown State 24

BOTTOM BRACKET

Lafayette (6-5) at No. 3 Massachusetts (10-1), 12:00

The Leopards might not be the most highly-regarded team in the field with a 6-5 overall record, but they are becoming pretty familiar with the postseason under head coach Frank Tavani. After starting the season with a 2-5 record, Lafayette won its final four contests to finish with a 4-1 Patriot League record and claim the leagues automatic berth with a 49-27 victory over rival Lehigh in the season finale. That victory also sealed a third consecutive postseason berth for the program after not making the field before 2004. Lafayette is 0-2 in its first two playoff appearances, but was tied or ahead in the fourth quarter in losses at Delaware in 2004 and to eventual national champion Appalachian State last year. The task will be just as difficult this season, as the Leopards travel to a Massachusetts team that just completed the first perfect season in the Atlantic 10 since 1997 and holds a perfect 10-0 record against I-AA/FCS teams. The No. 3 seeded Minutemen have held a spot in the top 10 of the national rankings all season, and own a nine-game overall winning streak since losing 21-20 at I-A Navy. The Atlantic 10 champions and 1998 national champions are in the field for the first time since 2003 and making their seventh appearance overall. The Minutemen have never faced Lafayette, though they will try to get a little payback at the Patriot League after losing in the first round against Colgate three years ago.

When Lafayette Has the Ball: The overall numbers look pretty good. The Leopards are 25th nationally with 27.5 points per game, have racked up 364.6 yards of total offense per contest and are efficient running and passing. Running back Jonathan Hurt (1124 yards, 15 TD) has 135 yards or more in four of the last five games, and quarterback Brad Maurer (2099 yards, 11 TD/9 INT) comes off his best effort of the season with 20-of-24 passing for 243 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in a 49-27 win over Lehigh. And the recent play of Maurer, Hurt and the entire offense really gives the Leopards a chance to score. They have scored at least 27 points in each of the last five games, and notched 45 and 49 points in the past two games. They arent going to hit that type of high number against the Minutemen, but need to keep playing well against a defense that holds its own with any in the country. They are No. 2 nationally with 11.3 ppg allowed, give up less than three yards per carry on the ground and have only surrendered five touchdown passes all season. No team has scored more than 21 points against the Minutemen all season, and the defense limited six opponents to single digits.

When Massachusetts Has the Ball: The Minutemen have balance on offense with Steve Baylark (1308 yards, 10 TD) running for 118.9 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry and quarterback Liam Coen (2179 yards, 20 TD/4 INT) holding a spot in the top five of the passing efficiency rating all season. The Minutemen score 28.9 points per game, and had a stretch where they were rolling with five consecutive efforts of 30 points or more earlier in the season. However, they struggled in bad weather conditions in a 7-0 win over Northeastern on October 28, and didnt perform with quite the same proficiency in the final month. Facing Lafayettes defense could help the Minutemen get back on track. Lehigh went through the Leopards at times last week, and Lafayette did not shut down any of the good offenses it faced this season. They gave up 24 points or more to Harvard, Princeton, Yale and Lehigh, and really struggled against the pass with 199.7 yards per game and 16 touchdowns allowed. Coen and a strong group of receivers should be able to make plays, and Baylark figures to get the running game on track as well. The Leopards only forced 14 turnovers this season and Massachusetts committed only 12, but the Lafayette defense could use a few big plays to stay in the game.

Intangibles: Lafayette is familiar with the playoffs in its third visit in a row, and really has no pressure to win the game as a 6-5 team that won a conference that most observers agree was in a down year. That will allow the Leopards to play very loose, though it remains to be seen how much they have left after a four-game win streak of contests that were all must-wins, including another big one over the archrival Mountain Hawks last week. Massachusetts should be ready for this game in its first playoff appearance since 2003, but cant afford to just look at Lafayettes record and look ahead to a possible matchup with New Hampshire next week.

The Verdict: The assumption here is that Massachusetts wins easily against a 6-5 team that won a weak league, but this is a different Lafayette team in the past month. The Massachusetts defense is going to be tough for anybody to score on, but the balance between running and passing can help the Leopards move the ball against the Minutemen. The Leopards also have taken a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter of their two playoff appearances thus far, so they arent going to be overwhelmed by the situation. But the Leopards dont have the same defense, and a Massachusetts offense that can run and pass can put up a breakout performance. Lafayette is close for a while and scores more than most people expect, but Baylark and the offense will be too much to handle. Prediction: Massachusetts 31, Lafayette 20

No. 9 New Hampshire (8-3) at No. 8 Hampton (10-1), 1:00

The overall playoff histories arent all that impressive for either program, but both the Wildcats and Pirates are getting used to the postseason recently. Both teams are making their third consecutive postseason appearance and fifth overall, though both are also looking for a greater measure of success after the last two seasons. New Hampshire, the No. 1 seed in the 2005 postseason, was ousted in the quarterfinals for the second year in a row with a 24-21 home loss to Northern Iowa. Though they are familiar with the playoffs, the Wildcats are happy to just to be back in the postseason after some late struggles. They jumped out to a 5-0 start that included a win over I-A Northwestern, but losses to James Madison, Northeastern and Massachusetts left New Hampshire with a 6-3 mark. The Wildcats had to go to overtime in the season finale at Maine to get to 8-3, but a six-yard run by Chad Kackert lifted them past the Black Bears, 19-13. Hampton had a tougher time getting to the postseason as well, as the Pirates dropped a MEAC game to South Carolina State after going undefeated in the league a year ago. They did recover to win their final two conference games and take the leagues berth, and did so in resounding fashion with a 59-7 victory at Florida A & M before last weeks bye. The Pirates have not enjoyed any postseason success with an 0-4 overall record, and have to be tired of seeing Atlantic 10 teams after losing to William & Mary and Richmond in the last two first rounds. They havent been able to knock off New Hampshire either, as the Wildcats hold a 2-0 edge in the series with victories in a home- and-home in 2000 and 2001.

When New Hampshire Has the Ball: Its strength against strength with the New Hampshire passing attack facing Hamptons defense that ranks No. 1 nationally against the pass. The Wildcats average 249.6 yards per game through the air, with Ricky Santos (2681 yards, 23 TD/5 INT) doing almost all of the damage. Take out a game where Santos was 1-of-3 for 11 yards at Hofstra, and the numbers would be even better. Santos top target as usual is wide receiver David Ball (82 receptions, 990 yards, 11 TD), who could be ready for some huge playoff efforts after a good but not spectacular season. The Wildcats are third in the country with 36.5 ppg, and have the ability for huge games against anybody. However, they were slowed by strong defenses late in the season, and face a Hampton defense that ranked first against the pass in the country. The Pirates notched 15 interceptions and 10 touchdowns allowed while limiting opponents to 45 percent of passes completed and 119.6 yards per game. They posted those numbers against a soft schedule, so facing a potent offense gives the defense a chance to prove its for real. While the passing numbers are most talked about for New Hampshire, the running game has also performed very well during the best offensive efforts. New Hampshire was shut down by some of the tougher Atlantic 10 defenses on the ground, but still managed 155 yards per game and could do well against a Hampton defense that gave up 139 yards per contest. Santos ran for 385 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Wildcat offense will be very tough to stop if the Pirates allow him to make plays with his feet.

When Hampton Has the Ball: The Pirates became a more balanced offense this season, but the bread and butter is still running the ball, especially with a healthy Alonzo Coleman (909 yards, 11 TD) in the backfield. Coleman averaged 6.6 yards per carry and notched 361 yards and five touchdowns on the ground in the last two games, and should get the bulk of the work for a team that averages 175.7 rushing yards per contest. Stopping the run has been the biggest problem for the Wildcat defense, as that unit has given up 153.7 yards per game for the season. Hampton will also need to run to control the clock and keep the ball out of Santos hands, so expect the Pirates to stick with the ground game if it is working. When they do go to the air, Pr