Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
10/21/2007 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cloudy's Knight, making his third straight start at Woodbine, held off 5-2 favorite Ask to capture Sunday's 70th running of the $2 million Canadian International. In the supporting $1 million E.P. Taylor Stakes, 7-5 favorite Mrs. Lindsay caught Sealy Hill to win the 1 1/4 mile grass race.
The Canadian International, won by Secretariat in 1973, is a major turf event for thoroughbreds not entered in Breeders' Cup races. A full field of 12 was entered with European horses getting most of the attention.
Cloudy's Knight was coming off a one-length win at Woodbine in the Sky Classic Stakes after placing second in the Nijinsky here. The betting public sent off the seven-year-old gelding as an 18-1 longshot.
The pace in the 1 1/2 mile turf race was set by Marsh Side with Sunriver running second and Cloudy's Knight racing third up the backstretch. Marsh Side continued to set the pace around the turn for home before giving way at the top of the stretch.
Cloudy's Knight, ridden by Ramsey Zimmerman, took the lead in mid-stretch and was able to hold off Ask. Trained by Frank Kirby, Cloudy's Knight was able to prevail by a nose over Ask with 3-1 morning-line favorite Quijano finishing a length back in third.
The time for the 1 1/2 miles was 2:27.71 on a firm turf course.
Completing the order of finish was Stream of Gold, Oracle West, Sunriver, Sky Conqueror, Honolulu, Windward Islands, Irish Wells, Linda's Lad and Marsh Side.
The win, worth $1.2 million, pushes Cloudy's Knight's career earnings to more than $2 million. Owned by S J Stables, the winner has won 10 of 32 career starts, with a victory earlier this year in the Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup Handicap.
Cloudy's Knight returned $38.70, $11.50 and $7.60. Ask paid $5.40 and $3.40, and Quijano paid $4.50 to show.
Mrs. Lindsay, ridden by John Murtagh, fought back to retake the lead from Sealy Hill to win the E.P. Taylor Stakes for fillies and mares. The time for the 1 1/4 miles was 2:00.68 on the grass.
Sealy Hill, the Canadian Triple Tiara champion, passed the eventual winner in mid-stretch, but was unable to hang on for the victory. Mrs. Lindsay posted a half-length win as she set a new stakes record.
Barancella, who was second in last years E.P. Taylor, finished third followed by The Niagara Queen, Sans Souci Island, Essential Edge, Hostess, Four Sins, Safari Queen and Elle Runaway.
Mrs. Lindsay paid $4.80, $2.90 and $2.50. Sealy Hill returned $4.70 and $3.20, and Barancella paid $3.20 to show.
Mrs. Lindsay is a Pennsylvania-bred three-year-old owned by Mrs. Bettina Jenney and trained by Francois Rohaut. In her last start she won the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp in France.
<< Thorrington's winner lifts Fire over Galaxy, into playoffs
Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Major League Soccer schedule maker
couldn't have planned it any better.
The last game of the regular season was between two teams that were still in
the hunt for the last playoff spot, while al
<< Bironas boots record eight FGs as Titans hold off furious Texans rally
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rod Bironas' NFL record eighth field goal of
the game -- a 29-yarder as time expired -- gave the Tennessee Titans a wild
38-36 win over the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Trailing 32-7 heading into th
<< Giants roll over 49ers for 5th straight
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eli Manning threw a pair of touchdown
passes and Brandon Jacobs ran for 107 yards with a score, as the New York
Giants rolled to a 33-15 victory over the San Francisco 49ers at the
Meadowl
<< Redskins survive wild finish to edge Cardinals
Landover, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neil Rackers' 55-yard field goal attempt at
the end of regulation hooked just wide left, as the Washington Redskins hung
on after a wild finish for a 21-19 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Jason Campbell
Roughriders clinch playoff spot with win over Ticats >>
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kerry Joseph threw for 261 yards with a
touchdown and ran for two more scores as Saskatchewan clinched a home playoff
berth in the West Division with a convincing 38-11 victory over Hamilton.
Joseph c
Miami's Brown injures knee >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown suffered
a knee injury during Sunday's game against the New England Patriots.
Brown was hurt trying to make a tackle on an interception in the third quarter
of Miami's 4
Tribe's Byrd admits purchasing HGH >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Indians pitcher Paul Byrd did not
dispute a newspaper report from earlier Sunday, which detailed the veteran's
purchase of human growth hormone over a period of more than two years.
The San Fra
Cook gets first Champions Tour win in second week >>
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took only two weeks, but John Cook has
become a winner on the Champions Tour.
Cook, an 11-time winner on the PGA Tour, fired a six-under 65 on Sunday to
come from behind and win the AT&T Champion
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook.com favors Bears, Bengals, Chargers and Colts to remain perfect
LAS VEGAS , Sept. 28 - Two big match-ups of undefeated teams have fans salivating at the Week Four schedule in the NFL. The Chicago Bears stifling defense looks to provide a less than hospitable welcome to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a battle of two 3-0 teams in the NFC conference. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers (2-0) head to Maryland to face the surprising Baltimore Ravens (3-0) as both try to keep pace atop the conference standings. Betting Lines makers at MySportsbook.com, online sportsbook and casino, have set the Bears as 3.5 point favorites while the Chargers are a 2.5 point bet.
Of the three remaining undefeated teams, only one, New Orleans, enters this week's game as an underdog. Despite an emotional and resounding win over Atlanta on Monday night, the Saints are a 7.5 point underdog against the struggling Carolina Panthers. Indianapolis looks to stay perfect when they face the New York Jets as a 9 point road favorite while the Cincinnati Bengals are a 6 point favorite at home to the New England Patriots.
Six teams enter the week still looking for their first win, with a seventh, Tampa Bay, on a bye week. The prospect of dropping another game would not bode well for a potential playoff run. Since 1990, just three teams -- the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills -- have overcome losing their first three games of the season to earn a postseason berth. And only the Chargers managed to accomplish the feat after starting 0-4.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting