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07/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For Cleveland Indians fans, the hard part is over.
They've endured a first half of the season that saw their team finish 20 games below .500 (34-54) and fall 15 1/2 games off the pace in the American League Central. Granted, not even the most die-hard Cleveland fans were penciling the Indians into a postseason spot in 2010. General manager Mark Shapiro made certain to temper any such expectations at the outset of the season.
Having just limped past the halfway point of the season, the Indians will use the second half to put their future plans into focus. And despite being buried in the standings and having the lowest attendance figures in the majors, there are a few reasons for optimism in Cleveland.
At the forefront is rookie catcher Carlos Santana, who so far has certainly lived up to his super-prospect hype. In only 95 big league at-bats, Santana has homered five times, driven in 16 runs and hit .284. Likewise, first baseman Matt LaPorta, the key prospect in the CC Sabathia deal in 2008, has started to come along lately. In 12 games since being recalled from a minor league detour on June 27, he's hit .357 with four homers and 11 RBI.
But the one guy who has really rewarded the organization for its patience is starting pitcher Fausto Carmona (8-7), who earned his first All-Star nod with a 3.64 ERA and a pair of complete games through 18 starts. Most importantly, the right-hander has drastically cut down on the number of walks that led to his demotion to the minors last year.
Fellow starter Jake Westbrook may never produce to the level of his $11 million annual salary, though lately he has made steady progress in his return from Tommy John surgery. It would be a bonus for the front office if he has pitched well enough to attract an offer from a team looking for starting pitching help at the trade deadline.
Cleveland took a big hit with the season-ending knee surgery to three-time All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore in May. Injuries to right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb) and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (forearm) obviously haven't helped the Tribe's fortunes at the plate as well, although both are targeting a return by the end of July. Before his thumb injury on July 2, Choo was in line for an All-Star nod with a .286 batting average, 13 home runs and 43 RBI.
Mitch Talbot has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation, leading all AL rookies with eight wins. In addition, fellow starter Justin Masterson seemed to get into a groove over his last few starts. And in the bullpen, Chris Perez has emerged as a legitimate candidate to take over the closer's job.
All in all, things aren't looking so bleak for incoming GM Chris Antonetti, who will replace Shapiro at the end of the season. Still, the primary objective for manager Manny Acta and the front office is to identify which players will be around for the long haul. The evaluation process takes center stage when the team resumes play Friday night.
"I just want these young kids to get out and play hard," Acta said. "We're going to get something out of it. We're going to be able to see who's going to join that core that we're building for the future."
ROOKIES BOESCH, SCHERZER KEY FOR TIGERS' SECOND HALF
When looking at how the Detroit Tigers' roster shapes up, it's given that Miguel Cabrera will put up big power numbers, Justin Verlander will mow down opposing lineups, and Johnny Damon will continue to make key veteran contributions. But to seize the top spot in the AL Central, it's up to some of Detroit's younger guys to produce in the second half.
Cue rookie outfielder Brennan Boesch and 26-year-old No. 2 starter Max Scherzer, both of whom have been instrumental in the Tigers' first-half record (48-38). In eight starts since returning from his midseason demotion to Triple-A Toledo, Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Boesch has his name in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors thanks to a ridiculous .342 batting average, 12 homers and 49 RBI. He boasts a .593 slugging average and is on pace for nearly 300 total bases as a rookie.
It's tough to imagine Boesch keeping up that kind of pace for the duration of the season, but the Tigers do need his presence in the middle of the lineup. As for Scherzer, the Tigers need him to continue to bridge the gap between Verlander and the rest of the rotation.
If both can achieve their respective goals, it would go a long way toward helping the Tigers finally capture their first AL Central crown.
WHITE SOX PICK UP RIGHT WHERE THEY LEFT OFF
When a team is as hot as the Chicago White Sox have been, typically the last thing the players want is some time off. Winners of eight straight heading into the All-Star break, you could hardly blame the White Sox for wanting to keep the train rolling.
Nevertheless, this week's three-day layoff does not appear to have taken any wind out of Chicago's sails, as the team resumed play Thursday with an 8-7 win over the Minnesota Twins for their ninth consecutive triumph. Prior to that victory, in which Chicago rallied back from a four-run deficit, manager Ozzie Guillen put into perspective what a trip to the playoffs this season would mean to him.
"If we go to the playoffs, it will be most satisfying year I have had in seven years with this ballclub," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "This one will be more exciting than the two (previous) playoffs for me."
Over their last 31 games, the White Sox are an incredible 26-5. If they keep up this pace much longer, Guillen figures to be one very satisfied manager.
ROYALS TWEAKING ROTATION FOR SECOND HALF
The baseball adage, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher" is about as old as the game itself. Still, the saying holds true today, as it will for years to come.
That brings us to the Kansas City Royals, whose starters have assembled an unsightly 5.11 ERA as a group. The best of the bunch, reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, has fallen victim to insufficient run support, although he's gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts to lower his season ERA to 3.71. The staff ace, was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday with some discomfort in his shoulder, has only a 5-8 record for the year.
Projected No. 2 starter Gil Meche was placed on the 60-day DL on Thursday, a move that was designed to clear roster space for Henry Barrera, who was ending a rehab assignment. Meche is eligible for reinstatement on July 25, though he has not pitched since May 25 and will require some time on a Minor League rehab assignment.
Former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar has been out since June 11 with a sprained elbow, though he hasn't been particularly effective anyway in pitching to a 5-4 record and a 4.96 ERA in 13 starts before the injury.
All of that has left manager Ned Yost scrambling. He has even tinkered the rotation so as to line up Brian Bannister for as many day starts as possible.
In six daytime starts this year, Bannister is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA. But in 12 outing as night, he is 3-7 with a 7.45 ERA. By slotting Bannister in the No. 3 spot in the rotation, four of his next nine starts will come in day games.
Of course, it will take more than Yost's tinkering for the Royals' starters to excel in the second half.
"We have to play consistent baseball, and it all revolves around your starting pitching," Yost told the Kansas City Star. "If we're going to be in it, our starting pitching has to be able to take us to that point."
HITS KEEP COMING FOR FADING TWINS
Already with a 3-8 record in July, the Minnesota Twins can ill-afford many more bad breaks if they are to stay in contention for the AL Central crown. However, they were dealt a big blow on Thursday, when four-time All-Star first baseman and former league MVP Justin Morneau was placed on the 15-day DL with lingering symptoms from a concussion suffered during a collision at second base on July 7.
Morneau worked out for about 25 minutes on an elliptical machine Thursday morning, but later felt some "fogginess" and decided a DL stint would be best to clear out all the cobwebs.
In other injury news, second baseman Alexi Casilla has moved up to Double-A as he rehabs from bone spurs in his right elbow. According to manager Ron Gardenhire, Casilla has seven or eight days left on his rehab assignment, pending any setbacks. Meanwhile, no timeline has been set on reliever Clay Condrey, who has been dealing with a right elbow injury. The right-hander has been touring doctor's offices, with Gardenhire telling the team's website the injury "isn't looking good."
<< Predators sign Lundmark
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators signed center Jamie
Lundmark to a one-year, two-way contract on Friday.
The 29-year-old appeared in 36 games between Calgary and Toronto in the
2009-10 season and tallied five
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an effort to boost exposure, Eastern
Washington University will literally go in the red this year, replacing the
traditional grass surface of Woodward Field with red artificial turf.
The move is admitte
<< As the wind blows, scores soar at St. Andrews
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After second-round play was stopped
for 66 minutes at the British Open, the wind continued to blow at St. Andrews,
and in the process, sent scores soaring.
With the final group midway through th
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Stuttgart, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Albert Montanes of Spain rolled over
second-seeded Jurgen Melzer in the quarterfinals of the Mercedes Cup tennis
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Montanes, seeded fifth, cruised over the second-seeded
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Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto FC will be trying to extend its
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Philadelphia Union.
Toronto recorded a 1-0 win over the Colorado Rapids last
N.Y. visits Columbus with first place at stake >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew host Red Bull New York in a
top-of-the-table clash on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action.
The Crew are two points up on the Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference table.
Columbus (8
Real shoots for more road success at Dallas >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Salt Lake forward Robbie Findley said after
a recent win at the Chicago Fire one of our goals this year was to "improve on
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Findley converted a penalty in the 1-0 win on July 8, helping Rea
Bulls add another former Utah player in Brewer >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have reportedly agreed to a
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According to a report on the team's website, the Bulls made the move for
Brewer after the Magic matched the team
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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